¿Cómo le pega a México el petróleo a $110?

The Hormuz Oil Shock: How Is the Situation Looking for Mexico? 📊 💰

The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries more than 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products — around 20% of global oil consumption according to the IEA — has been effectively closed since early March. Because of this, oil prices have surged to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The market is now pricing Brent to peak at $115/bbl in Q2 2026 and fall below $90/bbl by Q4, as production shut-ins slowly abate.

Besides the imminent impact on growth and inflation, the blow will hit hardest in countries with heavy reliance on imported energy and limited fiscal capacity to buffer the shock.

So where does Mexico stand?

While higher international oil prices generate more revenue for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico imports far more refined products than it exports in crude. This makes the country a structural net energy importer — not a beneficiary of the rally.

On top of that, the government is actively subsidizing consumer fuel prices by reducing the special fuel tax (IEPS). Currently, the IEPS fiscal stimulus on diesel stands at 81%, on Magna gasoline at 31%, and on Premium at 18%.

This is not new. The same playbook was deployed in 2022, when crude surged to nearly $130/bbl and the stimulus was maintained throughout the entire year — at a total fiscal cost of $390 billion pesos or 1.4% of GDP.

For 2026, the federal budget projected an average oil price of $54 per barrel and IEPS revenue of $761 billion pesos. With Brent at more than double that assumption, both figures are effectively broken.

So what does this mean?

If the price cap holds, the fiscal drain deepens quietly. If the government is eventually forced to adjust, the inflation pass-through to consumers could resurface.

👉 My take: the measure has a positive social impact by keeping prices relatively stable while the government absorbs the cost. But the question is: is this a responsible shock absorber or a fiscal liability compounding quietly?

What’s your read? I’d love to hear your thoughts.